arXiv:2603.06813v2 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: In a stationary decentralized Markov game, learning peers generate an episode-indexed sequence of induced MDPs for any focal agent. The joint game remains stationary while the focal agent’s rewards and dynamics drift, forming an agent-centric continual reinforcement-learning problem. Marginalizing peers whose policies are fixed within an episode preserves every focal trajectory law and expected return. Success-conditioned reusable structure may therefore degrade under peer updates. An emph{invariant core} represents such structure through maximal abstract patterns appearing in a high fraction of successful focal trajectories. The main result is a worst-case-tight conditioning theorem: trajectory-law drift $varepsilon$ can reduce a candidate’s success-conditioned coverage by at most $frac{varepsilon}{p_0}$, where $p_0$ is its reference success mass, and the coefficient is sharp. Peer-policy movement supplies $varepsilon$; positive coverage margin then yields a certified $Omega(frac{1}{eta})$ survival horizon and, under an explicit effective-conflict condition realized by exact policy gradient in an analytic class, a matching $Theta(frac{1}{eta})$ first-exit law. With calibrated success mass and executability, the same certificate yields policy-value, library-selection, and transfer-regret guarantees. An exactly solvable corridor confirms the structural predictions, including the inverse-rate lifetime ($R^2>0.9999$). Two registered 64-stream studies in continual control and cue-MNIST show that core erosion predicts impending failure and enables near-oracle intervention; an exploratory reanalysis of eight learned-partner Level-Based Foraging development pairings suggests the same erosion–failure link under peer learning.
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