Tail-Weight Control and Localized Generalization in Nearly Low-Rank Adversarial Classification

arXiv:2609.23688v3 Announce Type: replace-cross
Abstract: Empirical ramp fitting can assign weight to pure-noise features even when the population optimum ignores them. We quantify this gap for norm-constrained adversarial classification with Gaussian signal and noise. The variance cost relative to normalized signed mean separates into two factors: selecting observations inside the active margin window and the curvature induced by the norm constraint. Changing the tail variance leaves the activewindow probability unchanged but changes the second factor. With positive attack budget and a signal-only predictor of risk below one half, we prove a uniform quadratic tail-deletion bound, including at zero tail variance. Sufficiently accurate approximate global empirical minimizers admit exact fixeddimensional asymptotic covariances in the low-risk regime with isotropic principal covariance. For positive tail variance at most principal variance, the product exceeds one; an additional moment condition transfers it to expected excess ramp and robust classification risks. A wide window analysis characterizes when this ordering reverses. Controlled experiments test the decomposition, and a separate contamination study examines its scope outside the Gaussian training model.